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In his blog, Morgan Housel — a partner at the venture capital firm, The Collaborative Fund, and author of “The Psychology of Money” and “Same as Ever:  A Guide to What Never Changes” — points out that most endeavors fall into one of two kinds of actions:  fields of precision vs. fields of uncertainty.  For example, Astrophysics is a field of precision.  NASA’s forecasts are typically highly accurate, such as their projection of when the New Horizon’s spacecraft would pass Pluto.  It was one minute less than predicted, which means it was 99.99998% accurate.  But the field of Meteorology is less accurate.  A weather forecast of more than 10 days into the future is only about 50% accurate.  And Entertainment is even less accurate.  Although AI is thought to be improving the ability to predict which programs or movies will be “a box office hit”, it is still a highly inaccurate field, especially at the preproduction phase which is when it is decided whether to make a movie. 

Most undertakings in life exist in fields of uncertainty, overwhelmingly driven by decisions that cannot be calculated with clean formulas.  That’s because most endeavors are not based on calculated risks but on uncertainties that have a high probability of failure.  It would be wonderful if more things in life had as much certainty as astrophysics. For instance, an entrepreneur would love to have a 99.99998% certainty that a new business venture was going to be successful and make money before spending a second or cent establishing it.  But that is just not how life works.

The Need for Negative Capability

In a world of uncertainty — where the success or failure of most actions are based on more than talent or work ethic – how does a professional embrace the unknowns and unknowable and push through doubts and insecurities?  In 1817, English poet John Keats had an epiphany about living with ambiguity.  In a letter to his brothers, he said “At once it struck me, what quality went to form a Man of Achievement … Negative Capability.  That is when a man is capable of being in uncertainties, mysteries, doubts, without any irritable reaching after fact and reason.”  Keats realized that most people can handle a little uncertainty once in a while but few are able to deal with profound uncertainty all of the time.  Therefore, those who have “Negative Capability” are more likely to persevere and succeed.  Indeed, while most successful people in business, government, industry and academia project confidence in their vision and certainty in the plan or path proposed, it is their ability to continually live with uncertainty that is arguably the backbone of achievement. 

What Exactly is Negative Capability?

As the name implies, Negative Capability is the ability to tolerate ambiguity and uncertainty — to embrace the unknown and be comfortable with it – which lies at the heart of achievement.  To be successful, a person must accept and welcome the idea that there are things that he does not know and may never know.  For artists and creative people, negative capability is a key quality because it allows them to be open to new ideas and experiences.  However, it is also a valuable quality for anyone who wants to be a lifelong learner.  Why?  Because Negative Capability affects achievement in several important ways.

1. Boosts Creativity and Innovation – Negative Capability helps an innovator break free from conventional thinking and come up with new and original ideas.  This is invaluable to an artist, of course, but also to anyone in practically any profession from architect to attorney.

2.  Enhances Problem-Solving – Negative capability helps a leader to approach problems from new angles and to tap into solutions that might have otherwise been overlooked because they weren’t typical or logical.

3. Improved Decision-Making – Negative capability helps a manager make better decisions by allowing him to consider all the possibilities and weigh the risks and benefits of each option.

4.  Greater Resilience – Negative capability helps professionals bounce back from setbacks and learn from mistakes.

For instance, an entrepreneur starting a new business could use negative capability to come up with new ideas for products or services.  Or a student could use negative capability to approach a difficult exam question from a different angle. For a relationship counselor, negative capability could be helpful in allowing couples to see things from each other’s perspectives. 

However, Negative Capability is not about being passive or indecisive. It is about being open to new possibilities and about being willing to take risks.  In life, this is a powerful tool for achieving goals and living a more fulfilling life.

Negative Capability in Business

Negative capability is a valuable asset for entrepreneurs and business leaders, enabling them to navigate the complexities and uncertainties of the business world and achieve remarkable success. It can contribute to entrepreneurial success by allowing a leader to:

• Embrace Uncertainty and Risk-Taking.  The business landscape is inherently uncertain, and entrepreneurs must be comfortable operating in ambiguous situations. Negative capability allows them to tolerate the discomfort of not knowing all the answers and to embrace the risk-taking necessary for innovation and growth.
• Be Open to New Ideas and Perspectives.  Negative capability encourages entrepreneurs to stay open to new ideas, perspectives, and approaches, even when it contradicts existing assumptions or beliefs. This openness fosters creativity and adaptability, enabling them to identify new opportunities and pivot when necessary.
• Effectively Problem-Solve and Make Decisions. Uncertainty often leads to complex challenges.  Negative Capability empowers entrepreneurs to approach problems with a calm and analytical mindset. They can consider multiple perspectives, weigh the risks and benefits of different options, and make informed decisions even in the face of limited information.
• Be More Resilient and Persevere in the Face of Many Naysayers.  The path to entrepreneurial success is rarely smooth, and setbacks are inevitable. Negative capability helps entrepreneurs remain resilient in the face of challenges, learn from mistakes, and persevere through difficult times.

Business leaders who credit their ability to tolerate ambiguity and uncertainty for their success includes Amazon Founder Jeff Bezos.  Bezos is known for his willingness to experiment and take risks, demonstrating his comfort with uncertainty.  He fostered a culture of innovation at Amazon that has led to groundbreaking products and services.  Bezos is not alone in his Negative Capability.  Reed Hastings, Co-founder and CEO of Netflix embraced the ever-changing landscape of the entertainment industry, adapting Netflix’s business model and strategy in response to emerging trends and technologies. His ability to tolerate ongoing uncertainty has been crucial to Netflix’s success.  And Mary Barra, CEO of General Motors, led GM through significant transformations, including the transition to electric vehicles and autonomous driving technologies. Her ability to manage deep and long-term uncertainty while making bold decisions has been instrumental to GM’s continued success.

They are good examples of the power of Negative Capability in achievement.  By embracing uncertainty, fostering a culture of innovation, and making informed decisions in the face of limited information, entrepreneurs and business leaders can navigate the murky complexities and uncertainties of the business world and still achieve remarkable success.

Next week, we will look at why most people crave certainty and don’t handle uncertainty well.   And we will determine whether Negative Capability – the ability to accept and be comfortable with long-term uncertainty — is an inherent ability or a learned skill?  And if it’s learned, how is it developed?  Don’t miss it.

Quote of the Week
“The longing for certainty is in every human mind. But certainty is generally an illusion.” Justice Oliver Wendell Holmes

© 2023, Keren Peters-Atkinson. All rights reserved.